Strategy Grains lowered its forecasts for EU wheat exports and the 2024 harvest

This year’s reduction in soft wheat acreage will be offset by an increase in spring barley and corn, which are expected to grow by 7.1% and 2.4% respectively, with the corn crop forecast to increase by 63.6 million tons from 63.5 million last month.

This season, Strategie Grains has sharply lowered its forecast for soft wheat exports to the EU, which are now expected to reach 31.7 million tons, down from 32.5 million tons last month, citing a lack of competition from Russian wheat and low demand.

Falling prices for products of Russian and Ukrainian origin in recent weeks may stimulate French and German exports, but it is unlikely to fully compensate for the sluggish first half of the campaign, the consultancy said.

Strategie Grains has raised its barley production forecast to 53.4 million tons from 52.7 million last month, 13% higher than last year. Winter barley plantings were not affected by the rains, the consultancy said, while raising its estimate for Germany at the expense of wheat.

“Concerns are now focused on yield potential, especially for soft wheat, which in many places suffered from unfavorable conditions during sowing,” the report said.

“With rains forecast to return in the second half of January in western and northern parts of the EU, the situation needs to be closely monitored,” it added, according to Reuters.

Tags: EU, wheat, crop forecast, export, barley