Sown area of cereals in Germany was below 6 million hectares for the first time

German wheat harvest this year will be the same as in the excessively dry 2018, analysts estimate. Overall, soft wheat production in the European Union this year is expected to be at a four-year low.

German grain market analyst Dr. Olaf Zinke writes about this in an article published on Agrarheute: “The German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) confirms its previous crop forecasts for wheat, rapeseed and winter barley. This means that German farmers will harvest as much wheat as they did in the extremely dry year 2018.

“Over the past few days, many regions in Germany have experienced heavy rains, some of which led to flooding. The Saarland and parts of Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg were particularly affected. The rainfall caused regional damage to arable crops, which, however, should not be significant when considered nationwide. At the same time, water is already becoming scarce again in some areas in the north and east. Mild temperatures and constant wind have caused the soil to dry out,” says Guido Siedler, grain market expert at the German Raiffeisen Association (DRV).

Like the DRV, the German Federal Statistical Office expects the total area planted to 5.9 million hectares of cereals this year. This means that the area has fallen below the six million hectare mark for the first time. The reasons are the loss of area due to construction or climate protection measures as well as the construction of photovoltaic systems.

The statisticians also largely confirm the DRV estimates for spring sown areas. Only when it comes to corn for grain, the Federal Office assumes a significantly larger planted area than the association.

“We base our current crop estimate on the official area data and still expect a cereal crop of 41.8 million tons and a rapeseed crop of 3.9 million tons,” said Guido Siedler.

As for wheat, the association expects a harvest of 20.3 million tons – after 21.5 million tons the previous year – the worst result since the extremely dry 2018. For winter barley, production is estimated at just under 9.3 million tons, after 9.6 million tons in 2023.

European analyst firm Strategie Grains last week downgraded its forecast for this year’s European Union soft wheat crop, thereby confirming expectations of a four-year low in production.

The consultancy now expects EU soft wheat production in 2024/25 to be 121.8 million tons, 1.7 million tons lower than forecast in May.

The latest forecast of 3.6% below last year’s production would be the lowest since 2020/21, when the crop was also affected by heavy rains during the growing season. In its monthly grain report, Strategie Grains said France would see the biggest year-on-year drop in production, followed by Germany, Poland and Hungary. In France, the EU’s largest grain producer, heavy rains cut soft wheat sowings by more than 7% and in Germany by 8.3%.

Strategy Grains also cut its forecast for this year’s EU barley crop to 52.2 million tons from 53.0 million tons last month, although that would still be 10% above last year’s 47.5 million tons due to drought. Winter barley wheat harvesting began this month in southern Europe and the Black Sea, but yield prospects are still mixed, according to Strategy Grains.”

Tags: crop forecast, grain, barley, wheat, Germany