Russia’s sunflower oil exports may fall 40% due to logistics disruptions

Russia’s sunflower oil exports could decline by 14.3% year-on-year in July and by as much as 40% in August as logistics disruptions continue to hamper shipments. Exports through the Sea of Azov and Black Sea ports have nearly come to a standstill because of shipping restrictions, Kommersant reported.

According to SovEcon Director Andrey Sizov, Russia is expected to export around 180 thsd tons of sunflower oil in July 2026, down 53.9% from June and 14.3% below the level recorded a year earlier. In August, exports could fall further to 150 thsd tons, representing a 40% year-on-year decline. Other market participants also expect a sharp drop in exports of all vegetable oils.

According to Mikhail Maltsev, Executive Director of Russia’s Oil and Fat Union, the main reason for the decline is logistics constraints. Shipments through the Sea of Azov ports have virtually stopped, while shipowners remain reluctant to operate in the Black Sea because of elevated security risks. The Center for Price Indices also reports a significant reduction in the region’s export capacity.

Shipping restrictions intensified in July following increased Ukrainian drone and uncrewed surface vessel attacks on merchant ships and port infrastructure. On July 30, Russia’s Southern Transport Prosecutor’s Office reported damage to infrastructure at the Port of Taman following a drone attack. Demetra Holding, a co-owner of the grain terminal in Taman, declined to comment, while EFKO Group, which operates a vegetable oil terminal at the port, advised referring to statements issued by local authorities.

According to Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), more than half of Russia’s vegetable oil exports had previously been shipped through the Sea of Azov and Black Sea ports. Another 40% was exported through the Baltic and Caspian Seas to Iran, Belarus, Central Asia and China. However, he warned that redirecting these export flows to alternative routes would be challenging.

Market participants note that the current period is a seasonal lull, meaning the impact is not yet at its peak. Export activity is expected to accelerate after processing of the new harvest begins in early September. At present, exporters are primarily considering the Baltic and Caspian ports as alternative routes.

According to Maltsev, the Caspian Sea and Iran could provide an alternative corridor, including trucking cargo to a port on the Gulf of Oman for onward shipment to India. However, Sizov doubts that the Iranian route can handle significant export volumes, arguing that triple transshipment makes the logistics too expensive, while the limited capacity of Russian and Iranian Caspian ports is another major constraint.

Sizov believes a more practical solution would be to redirect part of the exports to container shipments using flexi tanks. He estimates that around 10% of Russia’s vegetable oil exports are currently transported this way. Roman Sokolov, Director of the Center for Price Indices, also noted that shipments to India could be handled through the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal, which has already completed several sunflower oil export shipments.

Tags: Russia, sunflower oil, export, sunseed, restrictions