Russian wheat export to Uzbekistan in 2026/27: does it mean a long-term access to a new consumer?

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Tetyana Shevel

Grain and oilseed market analyst UkrAgroConsult

Uzbekistan plans to increase russian wheat imports, as the expanding flour industry seeks to boost profits if wheat prices fall. For Uzbekistan, competition between russian and Kazakhstan suppliers will increase, for russia, growing wheat exports can improve domestic wheat balance, at least temporary. But again, Caspian logistics may limit the trade flows.

Despite the larger domestic crop, there is still a deficit of milling-quality wheat in Uzbekistan.

Uzbek mills historically relied on Kazakhstan for both wheat and flour. Uzbekistan’s industrial policy is now shifting imports away from finished flour towards wheat for processing at domestic plants. This strategy keeps milling margins, employment and added value inside Uzbekistan. It also strengthens the country’s position as a regional flour exporter.

Kazakhstan – russia competition. And what about Uzbekistan position? Again, logistics issues. The drop in russian domestic wheat prices makes wheat flows look for alternative destinations. Uzbekistan can use russian offers in two ways: it can buy the grain directly or use them to negotiate lower wheat prices and better railway terms with Kazakhstan.

Uzbekistan is discussing imports of up to 500 K mt of russian wheat through the Caspian ports of Astrakhan and Makhachkala. The proposal was considered by the Uzbek Chamber of Commerce and Industry and russia’s Steppe agricultural holding. The proposed volume would equal only approximately 12.5% of Uzbekistan’s forecast wheat imports.

The increase in russian wheat sales to Uzbekistan is driven by blocked or expensive russian export routes, weak domestic prices and Uzbekistan’s search for cheaper raw material.

However, Kazakhstan will probably remain Uzbekistan’s greatest wheat supplier because direct rail logistics are simpler and more predictable.

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Tags: grain, grain export, wheat, Uzbekistan, Russia, export