Russian grain exports via Baltic ports could slow after river navigation season ends

Russian grain exports through Baltic ports could face additional logistical constraints following the end of the river navigation season in November. In recent months, river transport has become an important route for delivering grain to the ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga, helping to partially ease pressure on railway infrastructure. However, once the Volga-Baltic Waterway closes for the season, a significant share of grain shipments will again depend on rail transport, which is already operating under capacity constraints.

From early September to October 20, 2026, nearly 940 thsd tons of grain were transported from Volga River ports to Baltic ports, six times more than during the same period last year. The increase in river shipments helped partially offset limited overland transport capacity and supported additional throughput at Baltic export terminals. According to the estimates cited, grain transportation by river is 30–50% cheaper than rail transport over comparable distances.

The main challenge is the seasonal nature of river logistics. Once navigation on the Volga-Baltic Waterway ends, grain deliveries to Baltic ports will become almost entirely dependent on rail transport. Meanwhile, railway stations in Russia’s Northwestern rail network are already operating under heavy pressure, while the ports of Vysotsk and Ust-Luga lack adequate road access for large-scale grain deliveries.

Under these conditions, further expansion of grain exports via Baltic ports during winter could prove more difficult than in autumn. Shifting additional volumes to rail transport creates risks of wagon congestion, longer delivery times and higher logistics costs. River transportation has therefore temporarily expanded the capacity of the Baltic export route, but once the navigation season ends, its throughput will again depend on constrained railway infrastructure.

Tags: Russia, export, grain, river shipping, restrictions