Rabobank forecasts a pause in Brazil’s soybean acreage expansion

After more than two decades of continuous growth, Brazil’s soybean acreage is expected to enter a period of stabilization. According to a new Rabobank report, the 2026/27 season will mark a turning point for the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter. Future production growth is expected to rely increasingly on higher yields rather than expanding planted area.

Rabobank estimates that soybean planted area reached around 49 mln ha in the 2025/26 season, while production hit a record 182 mln tons. Over the past 25 years, soybean acreage expanded at an average annual rate of 4%, allowing Brazil to increase its share of global soybean production from about 28% in 2010 to approximately 42% in 2026.

However, the bank believes the era of rapid acreage expansion is coming to an end. Since the 2022/23 season, higher production costs, particularly for fertilizers, lower global soybean prices, a stronger Brazilian real, and elevated interest rates have reduced incentives to bring new land into production. As a result, farmers have shifted their focus toward improving productivity, optimizing existing farmland, managing risks, and preserving cash flow.

Rabobank projects Brazil’s soybean production at around 178 mln tons in the 2026/27 season, slightly below the previous year’s record. The decline mainly reflects a return to average yield levels after two seasons of above-trend productivity. The forecast does not yet include the potential impact of an El Niño event.

According to the report, climate models indicate a high probability of El Niño developing during the second half of 2026, which could reduce yields across Brazil’s Central-West, North, Northeast, and parts of the Southeast. If weather-related losses materialize, they could tighten global soybean supplies and support international prices. Despite the slowdown in acreage expansion, Rabobank believes Brazil’s long-term soybean growth potential remains intact, with future gains increasingly driven by technology adoption, productivity improvements, and more efficient land use.

Tags: sown area, Brazil, soybean