Polish route cannot absorb a sharp increase in Ukrainian cargo flows — opinion

Polish ports, railways, and road border crossings remain critical to Ukraine’s export logistics, but they cannot fully replace the deep-water ports of Greater Odesa.

This opinion was shared with USM by Pavlo Lynnyk, CEO of GOL.

According to Lynnyk, the Polish route faces capacity constraints at every stage of transportation—from rail border crossings and cargo transshipment caused by different railway gauges to the limited capacity of intermodal terminals and Baltic ports.

“Poland is a critical part of Ukraine’s alternative logistics network, but it cannot become a full replacement for Ukraine’s deep-water ports. The scale is simply different,” Lynnyk said.

Another limitation is that Poland’s transport system primarily serves its own economy, with many local operators already working close to full capacity.

The biggest risk would be a simultaneous increase in pressure across the entire logistics chain. Because of the different rail gauges, cargo must be transshipped or rail bogies changed before moving onward, creating the potential for bottlenecks at terminals and ports.

Over the past three years, companies that relocated to western Ukraine have also established permanent cargo flows through Poland. A sharp redirection of additional Ukrainian export volumes could lead to congestion at border crossings, overloaded terminals, and shortages of port capacity.