Poland analyzes how Ukraine’s EU accession could affect its agricultural sector

Ukraine’s accession to the European Union could reduce funding for Polish farmers and increase competition for smaller farms. At the same time, the main challenge for Poland’s agricultural sector is seen not in Ukraine’s farming industry but in the current area-based subsidy system. This was stated by Łukasz Woydyga, Director of the Center for Strategic Studies, in an opinion piece for Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine had more than 41 mln ha of agricultural land. Ukraine’s accession would expand the EU’s agricultural area by roughly one quarter. If the current hectare-based payment system were extended to Ukraine, funding for existing EU member states could decline.

“This is certainly not an argument against Ukraine’s membership. The real issue lies in the current design of the Common Agricultural Policy,” Woydyga writes.

He explains that under the current model, larger farms automatically receive more public support because payments are largely linked to land area. As a result, the system rewards scale rather than productivity, technological advancement or value creation.

However, funding for Polish farmers could decrease even without Ukraine joining the EU. After 2027, agricultural funding is expected to be partially merged with cohesion funds and other EU financial instruments. As a result, the overall agricultural support budget could decline by more than 20% in nominal terms.

Under this scenario, Poland’s allocation under the Common Agricultural Policy could fall from the current €25 bln to about €19.4 bln.

The most radical scenario examined assumes that Ukraine would immediately receive full access to CAP payments under the current rules. In that case, Poland’s agricultural allocation could theoretically fall to €15.3 bln, or 39% below its current level, reducing support for Polish farmers by more than €1.4 bln per year.

Woydyga considers this scenario unlikely. A more realistic option, he argues, is Ukraine’s gradual integration into the Common Agricultural Policy over a multi-year transition period. The final level of payments will depend on the future EU budget, land eligibility rules, the length of the transition period and possible caps on subsidies.

According to the author, Poland should focus not on closing its agricultural market but on ensuring fair competition and pushing for a comprehensive reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. More support should be directed toward food processing, agricultural technologies and Polish food brands, while smaller producers should be encouraged to form cooperatives and producer groups.

Woydyga also notes that the agricultural sectors of Ukraine and Poland do not compete equally across all market segments. Ukraine remains primarily a major producer of grains, corn, rapeseed and sunflower, while Poland has stronger positions in food processing, value-added products and exports of processed foods.

In 2020, the value of agricultural production in the two countries was comparable: €27.4 bln in Ukraine and €25.9 bln in Poland. Therefore, integration could bring Poland not only greater competition but also access to Ukrainian raw materials and opportunities to develop regional supply chains.

At the same time, Ukraine’s access to the EU agricultural market and support instruments should depend on full compliance with sanitary, veterinary and environmental standards. European farmers, the author stresses, should not bear the costs of meeting requirements that their competitors do not follow.

“Ukraine’s accession to the EU will not be a catastrophe for Polish agriculture,” Woydyga concludes.

At the same time, integration could accelerate the crisis facing some smaller Polish farms that remain heavily dependent on subsidies and market protection. The government should help them adapt to the new environment but should not continue indefinitely supporting inefficient production models.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, Poland, agricultural sector