Output from Brazil’s second corn crop expected to decline

Forecasters expect lower production from Brazil’s second corn crop because of smaller planted area, lower investment by farmers and the intense El Niño weather pattern, which brought drought to central Brazil and excess rains to the south.

According to a report by agribusiness consultancy Cogo on Monday, Brazil will reap 118.5 million metric tons of corn in the 2023/2024 crop year, down from an initial expectation of 129.6 million tons.

The projection reflects an 11% reduction in the estimated area for first corn, planted in the Brazilian spring. For second corn, which represents 75% of annual production and is ideally sowed by mid-February, farmers are expected to cut the planted area by 5%, Cogo said.

Brazilian crop agency Conab forecast corn output would fall by almost 11% to 117.6 million tons.

Analysts and the government have thought a drop in planted area and production for corn were possible because delays with soy pushed back second corn cultivation. Brazilian farmers are accelerating the harvest of soybeans, which is planted before second corn in the same areas.

Lower production could knock Brazil from its position as the global top corn exporter. Brazilian exports in 2023/2024 may drop to 35 million tons from 56 million tons the prior year, according to Conab.

Because Brazilian soybean growers were forced to replant an unprecedentedly large area with the oilseed, farmers still face the risk of missing the ideal second corn planting window, boosting climate risks for that crop too.

As of last Thursday, 4.9% of the expected second-corn area had been planted in Brazil’s center-south, up from 0.4% in the previous week.

Noting potential weather impact, Cogo said the average yield of Brazil’s second corn fell to 63.7 bags per hectare in the Central-West region in 2015/2016, when the El Niño was intense, compared to the normal average of 110 bags per hectare.

Tags: corn, Brazil, crop forecast