Not just frost: drought will also reduce the grain harvest in Russia

This year’s wheat harvest in russia may reach 84 million tons according to an optimistic estimate, “the lower forecast is 77.5 million tons,” Igor Pavensky, head of agricultural market analysis – marketing director of Rusagrotrans, said at the All-Russian Grain Forum on Thursday.

“We proceed so far from an optimistic forecast – 84 million tons for wheat, 131 million tons for grain. The lower forecast (for wheat harvest) is about 77.5 million tons,” he said.

According to him, the drought and May frosts could not pass without a trace. They affected the regions, which account for up to 40% of winter wheat areas. “Accordingly, it is 40% of the gross harvest of winter wheat, which last year occupied 67 million tons out of almost 93 million tons in the total wheat harvest,” he recalled.

At the same time, the expert noted that the drought, which is expanding in the south, can also seize some regions of the center, as well as the Volga region, which have not yet suffered. “Plus Siberia is lagging behind, because there is cold and precipitation. There are 1 million hectares less sown in Siberia compared to last year. Accordingly, all this may lead to the fact that we will go to 77.5 million tons (of wheat harvest),” Pavensky believes.

According to his forecast, grain harvest may decrease in all federal districts. “The harvest may be higher than the average for the districts only in Siberia, and that is if we manage to reduce the lag that exists, to finish sowing most of the under-sown million hectares,” he warned.

Tags: grain, wheat, drought, crop forecast, Russia