Mexico’s purchases of US corn fall 31% amid recovery in domestic production

Mexico has significantly slowed its purchases of US corn in the MY 2026/27 amid a recovery in domestic production and the normalization of grain inventories. According to USDA data, as of October 22, Mexico’s commitments for US corn totaled 9.023 mln tons, down 31% from the same period last season. The shortfall compared with a year earlier reached approximately 3.7 mln tons, although market participants noted that the previous season was a record year, with particularly strong purchasing activity at the beginning of the marketing year.

Meanwhile, on November 2, the US Department of Agriculture reported a new major export sale of 1.135 mln tons of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year. This purchase could partially narrow the gap compared with last year’s contracting pace. However, traders believe Mexico’s overall demand for US corn could decline as domestic production recovers and inventories stabilize.

According to consulting group GCMA, Mexico’s corn production is forecast at 23.5 mln tons in 2026, up 100 thsd tons from the previous year. Meanwhile, domestic consumption is estimated at 48.2 mln tons, exceeding expected production by 24.7 mln tons. Despite a modest improvement in output, the country remains a major corn importer. Most domestic corn production is concentrated in northern Mexico, while consumers in southern and southeastern regions rely more heavily on imported supplies.

Competition from Brazil remains another factor for US exporters. According to Platts assessments, US corn for January shipment was priced at $221.26/ton FOB Gulf on November 2, while Brazilian corn was assessed at $215.24/ton FOB Santos on October 30. Based on these quotations, Brazilian corn was approximately $6/ton cheaper than US supplies. In addition, some Mexican feed grain buyers have highlighted quality advantages of Brazilian corn, particularly its lower share of broken kernels.

Despite the slowdown in contracting, the substantial gap between domestic corn production and consumption continues to support Mexico’s need for large import volumes. At the same time, the recovery in Mexican production and competition among suppliers could influence the distribution of import demand throughout the season.

Tags: corn, USA, Mexico