Kazakhstan’s grain exports lose profitability amid tax changes and stronger tenge

Grain export volumes from Kazakhstan continue to decline due to a combination of economic and regulatory pressures. A key factor is the strengthening of the national currency, the tenge, alongside tax changes introduced in January 2026. In particular, the reduction of VAT refunds for grain exporters has significantly undermined their profitability.

According to analysts from the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, the widening gap between domestic and export prices is leaving exporters without even minimal margins. On the domestic market, grain is primarily being purchased by feed flour processors, which further limits opportunities for profitable exports.

At the same time, there are some signs of potential demand recovery. Kazakhstan has reached agreements with China’s customs authorities to expand the list of eligible suppliers of feed products. This allows not only producers but also traders to export, provided the goods originate from facilities included in the official Chinese registry. This development is expected to support demand for wheat and barley.

Despite these efforts, shipment volumes remain low. Preliminary estimates suggest that total grain transportation in April 2026 will reach about 1 million tons, significantly lower than in March, when exports exceeded 1.15 million tons. Grain imports from Russia have also slightly declined, though they remain relatively stable.

Another notable trend is the shift toward exporting flour, which has been actively supplied to Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. This has led to oversupply in those markets and a local drop in prices for premium and first-grade flour. Overall, a combination of tax changes, currency dynamics, and seasonal factors is creating a negative outlook, with further slowdown in grain and oilseed exports expected in the coming months.

Tags: wheat, flour, Kazakhstan, export, grain