IGC: Total grains forecast falls on lower global corn production

Due to a downgraded corn production outlook in the United States and Argentina, the International Grains Council (IGC) has lowered its world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast to 2.248 billion tonnes, down 8 million tonnes from the January projection.

The report, issued on Feb. 16, foresees 2022-23 global corn production down 67 million tonnes from the previous year. Wheat output and consumption is seen unchanged at 796 million tonnes and 789 million tonnes, respectively. Total grains production is predicted to fall 43 million tonnes year-on-year.

The IGC in its February report cut its forecast for total grains consumption by 9 million tonnes but increased the carryover total by 2 million tonnes to 579 million, which is still the lowest level in eight years.

The drought in Argentina also is having an impact on global soybean output, the report noted. The IGC sees 2022-23 production at 378 million tonnes, 7 million lower than the previous estimate.

The IGC also made its initial projections for 2023-34 that include “a slight uptick in world (corn) harvested area, but with barley acreage seen lower. Given uncertainty about agricultural activity in controlled territories, figures for Ukraine are highly notional, but with area tentatively seen sharply lower year-on-year.”

The IGC’s Grains and Oilseeds Price Index dropped by 1% in the February report with a pullback in soybean, barley and rice export prices more than compensating for modest gains in wheat and corn.

Tags: Production, corn, wheat, export, forecast, barley, Argentina, IGC, coarse grains, prices, International Grains Council, rice, United States, soybean, Grains, Outlook