Malaysian palm oil production expected to decline in November

Malaysia is entering a seasonal decline in palm oil production in November 2026 following an increase in output in October. However, the market outlook remains mixed due to substantial inventories and uncertainty over future export demand. Despite the positive results of the October report, fundamental factors continue to limit the potential for a price recovery.

According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), production increased by 1.73% month-on-month in October to 2.15 mln tons. Meanwhile, exports surged by 55.75% to 1.71 mln tons, exceeding market expectations. Domestic consumption declined by 6.68% to 360.6 thsd tons.

Despite the significant increase in exports, palm oil inventories continued to rise. By the end of October, stocks reached 3.62 mln tons, up 3.16% from the previous month. However, actual inventories were significantly lower than analysts’ earlier forecasts, providing a positive signal for the market.

Palm oil production is expected to decline in November in line with seasonal trends. However, maintaining strong export volumes remains uncertain, while substantial accumulated inventories could limit further price increases. Future market dynamics will depend on the pace of production declines and demand from major importing countries.

Tags: prices, Malaysia, palm oil, crop forecast