Canadian wheat exports expected to decline amid smaller harvest and weaker North African demand

Canada’s wheat exports are projected to decline by 2.8% year-on-year to 28.95 mln tons in the MY 2026/27. According to the USDA attaché in Ottawa, the main factors include reduced exportable supplies, the price competitiveness of Canadian wheat, and currency fluctuations. However, shipments remained strong at the beginning of the season, with some monthly export volumes approaching or exceeding record levels.

Canadian wheat production in 2026 is estimated at 36.12 mln tons, down approximately 11% from the record 40.56 mln tons harvested a year earlier. Meanwhile, beginning stocks increased from 4.24 mln to 6.65 mln tons, partially offsetting the smaller crop. The USDA attaché’s export forecast is below the agency’s previous estimate of 30.5 mln tons but slightly above Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s projection of 28.75 mln tons.

Exports of non-durum wheat are also expected to decline from the 23.9 mln tons shipped in the previous season. However, the 2026 harvest includes a larger share of lower-grade Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat, particularly No. 3 and feed-grade wheat. This could improve the competitiveness of Canadian grain in price-sensitive importing markets.

Potential buyers of lower-grade Canadian wheat include Ghana, Iran, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, and Mexico. China and India could also purchase such wheat for blending with higher-quality milling grain. A potential free trade agreement between Canada and Ecuador could provide additional support for Canadian wheat exports.

Meanwhile, the outlook for durum wheat exports remains less favorable due to weaker import demand from North Africa, Canada’s largest durum export market. Strong grain harvests in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia could reduce their import requirements. Domestic feed wheat consumption in Canada is projected to reach 3.75 mln tons in MY 2026/27, compared with 3.67 mln tons in the previous season.

Tags: export, Canada, wheat