How much grain production costs in Ukraine could rise due to the Iran war

Grain production costs in Ukraine could increase significantly amid disruptions linked to the conflict involving Iran, particularly due to instability in energy logistics. Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Vysotskyi said in an interview with Liga.net that while the current situation remains under control, prolonged tensions in the Middle East may sharply raise costs for farmers.

According to him, recent fuel price increases have already added around 100 UAH (about $2.5) per tonne of corn. However, if logistical disruptions in the Persian Gulf persist, costs could surge up to 1,000 UAH (around $25) per tonne. The impact of rising fertilizer prices—up about 35%—has so far been limited, as most inputs were purchased in advance and are typically applied during the autumn season.

Fuel consumption remains a major component of production costs. On average, Ukrainian farmers use about 60 liters of fuel per hectare annually, including 20 liters for spring planting, 15 liters for harvesting, and 25 liters for autumn fieldwork. Currently, diesel expenses for the spring campaign are estimated at roughly 800 UAH per hectare.

Although farmers are currently well supplied to complete fieldwork, Vysotskyi noted that a prolonged logistics crisis could become a serious economic challenge for the agricultural sector, potentially affecting profitability and future planting decisions.