Heat and rising input costs to reduce EU grain production

Grain production in the European Union is expected to decline in the 2026/27 marketing year as adverse weather conditions and rising production costs weigh on crop output, according to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The sharpest yield declines are forecast in France, Hungary, Poland, and Germany.

FAS projects total EU grain production at 266 mln tons, down 8% from 289.2 mln tons in the 2025/26 season. The decline reflects both reduced planted area due to higher fertilizer and fuel costs and lower yields caused by drought and repeated heat waves.

Corn is expected to see one of the largest declines. FAS lowered its 2026/27 corn production forecast to 52.5 mln tons, 1.25 mln tons below last year’s crop and the smallest harvest since the 2022/23 season. Farmers reduced corn acreage because of rising production costs and concerns over dry weather, with the largest reductions reported in France, followed by Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Spain, and Portugal.

The wheat outlook has also weakened. FAS cut its forecast to 133.8 mln tons, down 8% from the 145.3 mln tons harvested in 2025/26, which had been the largest EU wheat crop in a decade. Several heat waves with temperatures exceeding 35°C since May have significantly reduced yield potential across much of Europe. Only Romania and Bulgaria are expected to produce larger wheat crops than previously anticipated.

As grain production declines, particularly in France and Hungary, EU grain imports are forecast to increase from 26.5 mln tons in 2025/26 to 28.4 mln tons in 2026/27. According to FAS, corn imports from Ukraine, the United States, Brazil, and Canada will play a critical role in meeting the bloc’s demand.

The weaker harvest is also expected to reduce grain inventories significantly. After reaching a record 37.5 mln tons in 2025/26, EU ending stocks are projected to fall by 21% to 29.6 mln tons, pointing to a considerably tighter grain balance in the European market.

Tags: crop forecast, corn, EU, France, Poland, wheat, stocks, Germany, Hungary