Heat and drought worsen outlook for Europe’s olive harvest

Prolonged heat and drought in the summer of 2026 are creating challenges for olive growers across several European countries and Turkey. High temperatures are hampering fruit development, while pests and wildfires are adding further pressure, increasing risks to olive oil production in the 2026/27 season.

In Turkey’s main olive-growing regions, summer temperatures reached 35–38°C, while there was almost no rainfall from June through August. Producers expect the harvest to improve from last year’s poor crop but remain skeptical about forecasts of record olive oil production. In the Manisa region, output could increase by around 35% compared with the previous season.

The outlook has also deteriorated in Greece. On the Chalkidiki peninsula, producers expect a below-average harvest due to drought and unfavorable weather, which has caused some fruit to fall prematurely. Pests have added to the pressure, while wildfires in late July and early August damaged olive groves in several regions, including Crete, Attica and Chalkidiki.

In Italy, a sharp rise in temperatures in June and July rapidly depleted soil moisture reserves. Growers have been forced to rely more heavily on irrigation, while unusual weather conditions have altered pest development cycles. In particular, olive fruit fly activity increased sharply in mid-July, posing an additional threat to the crop.

Drought is also creating problems for growers in Croatia, where maintaining crop potential without irrigation is becoming increasingly difficult. Some olive groves have been damaged by summer wildfires, with the destruction of mature trees resulting in losses extending beyond the current season. Weather therefore remains one of the main risks to Europe’s new olive crop ahead of the 2026/27 season.

Tags: olive, weather conditions, harvest, EU, drought