Germany to lose 1.4 mln tons of grain due to heatwave

The German Farmers’ Cooperative Association (DRV) has cut its 2026 grain production forecast to 42.7 mln tons, down 1.4 mln tons from its June estimate and 5.6% below last year’s harvest. The downgrade reflects the impact of intense heatwaves, which accelerated crop maturity, particularly for winter wheat.

According to DRV, high temperatures reduced both the number of grains per ear and grain size. Average grain yields fell from 7.55 to 7.03 t/ha, while the increase in planted area was not enough to offset the decline in productivity. Winter barley suffered the least damage, as it had largely matured before the hottest weather arrived.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 22.57 mln tons, down 11.7% year-on-year. Total wheat production is expected to decline by 5.4%, while the corn harvest is projected to fall by 8.1% due to adverse weather conditions.

The outlook for rapeseed is more stable. Although yields are expected to decline from 3.65 to 3.52 t/ha, a 5% increase in planted area to 1.14 mln ha is projected to lift production to around 4.03 mln tons, slightly above last year’s 3.97 mln tons.

DRV says increasingly frequent heatwaves require farmers to adapt their production practices. Key measures include adopting drought- and heat-tolerant varieties as well as expanding no-till farming systems, which help conserve soil moisture and improve crop resilience to extreme weather conditions.

Tags: grain, wheat, drought, rapeseed, Germany, crop forecast