Constanta may not have sufficient capacity to handle Ukrainian agricultural exports

The Port of Constanta could face a shortage of capacity to handle agricultural commodities from Ukraine and Romania. According to calculations by AGRIColumn analyst Cezar Gheorghe, the potential capacity shortfall could reach around 11.6 mln tons.

He estimates that around 70% of Ukraine’s commodity exports, or approximately 37.5 mln tons, could potentially be routed through Romania. Another 30% could move through Poland, Hungary and other neighboring countries. At the same time, Romania’s own agricultural export potential this year is estimated at at least 20 mln tons.

Following terminal upgrades, grain storage capacity at Constanta has increased to around 2 mln tons. Assuming 20 turnovers per year, the port’s theoretical throughput capacity is about 40 mln tons. Meanwhile, the combined potential handling needs of Ukraine and Romania could reach 57.5 mln tons.

Considering that Romania has already exported around 5.75–6 mln tons, Gheorghe estimates the potential capacity shortfall for the remainder of the period at around 11.6 mln tons. Moreover, the calculation does not include sunflower and rapeseed meal, sunflower and rapeseed oil, or cargoes from Serbia, Hungary and Moldova that also move through Constanta.

Additional constraints could include the need to segregate cargoes by country of origin, different modes of transport to the port, vessel queues and deteriorating weather conditions in winter. Despite these challenges, the Romanian route remains one of the simplest and least costly options for Ukrainian exports, although a sharp increase in cargo flows could put significant pressure on Constanta’s infrastructure.

Tags: Ukraine, Romania, agricultural exports, Constanta