Fuel crisis in Russia threatens harvest campaign

Russia is facing increasing risks of diesel fuel shortages ahead of the upcoming harvest campaign, which could create serious challenges for the agricultural sector. According to regional reports, fuel shortages have already affected around 25 federal subjects, with the most severe situation in the southern regions, where the main grain production areas are concentrated.

Farmers report difficulties in purchasing diesel fuel even at significantly higher prices. In some cases, wholesale prices have nearly doubled, while suppliers are unable to guarantee either volumes or delivery timelines. This creates risks for the timely start of the harvest campaign, expected to begin in July.

At the same time, signals of diesel shortages are coming not only from southern agricultural regions but also from eastern parts of Russia, indicating that the fuel crisis may be spreading across a growing part of the country ahead of the harvest. A particularly difficult situation has developed in the Irkutsk region, where local farmers have warned lawmakers about the risk of a near-total paralysis of agriculture due to a lack of diesel fuel. According to them, available supplies are being redirected to western regions of the country.

The issue becomes especially critical during the harvest season, when diesel demand traditionally reaches peak levels. Fuel is needed not only for combines and tractors but also for field logistics, grain transportation from fields, and further delivery to elevators and seaports for export shipments. Therefore, disruptions in supply may lead to harvest delays, logistical bottlenecks, and rising production costs for farmers. In case of delays, part of the grain may lose quality and shift from food-grade to feed-grade use, further reducing its market value.

One of the key reasons for the shortage is the accumulated problems in Russia’s crude oil refining industry. According to Energy Intelligence analysts, Ukraine has taken out around one-third of Russia’s refining capacity. As a result, the country is currently refining about 4 million barrels of crude oil per day, while roughly 2.14 million barrels of capacity remain offline.

Ukraine has recently changed its strike tactics, focusing on secondary refining units responsible for producing gasoline and diesel fuel, which require significantly longer repair times than primary refining units, especially under sanctions conditions. This has already led to a sharp increase in domestic fuel prices and raised the risk of further deepening the crisis.

Analysts warn that peak fuel demand is still ahead, meaning risks for the agricultural sector may intensify. If the situation is not stabilized before the start of large-scale harvesting, diesel shortages could disrupt the 2026 harvest campaign, delay field operations, and negatively affect both the volume and quality of the harvested crop.

Tags: Russia, harvesting, fuel