France expects smaller wheat harvest despite larger planted area

France’s Ministry of Agriculture has forecast the country’s 2026 soft wheat production at 32 mln tons, down 4% from last year and about 2% below the five-year average. The decline is mainly attributed to lower yields during the final stage of the growing season.

Although the wheat planted area increased by 3%, it was not enough to offset the expected 7% decline in yields. Crop conditions were generally more favorable than in 2025 for most of the season, but successive heatwaves late in the crop cycle reduced production potential.

Barley production is also expected to decline. Total winter and spring barley output is forecast at 11.1 mln tons, down 6.3% year-on-year and 2.3% below the five-year average.

In contrast, the outlook for rapeseed remains relatively stable. The ministry expects the 2026 rapeseed crop to total 4.6 mln tons, virtually unchanged from last year. An increase in planted area is expected to offset the impact of lower yields caused by adverse weather conditions.

Despite the lack of year-on-year production growth, this year’s rapeseed harvest is still expected to be one of the strongest in recent years. According to the ministry, production will be about 12% above the five-year average, highlighting the continued recovery of France’s rapeseed sector after several weaker seasons.

Tags: France, wheat, crop forecast