Global corn stocks could fall to a 13-year low

The global corn balance could tighten significantly in the 2026/27 season amid worsening U.S. crop prospects and strong demand. Global ending stocks are projected at 274.7 mln tons — the lowest level since the 2013/14 season, providing fundamental support to prices.

Global corn production is expected at around 1.3 bln tons, down from 1.33 bln tons last season. The situation is being exacerbated by lower U.S. crop forecasts. USDA estimates the average yield at 180.7 bushels per acre, down 5.8 bushels from last year, with production at around 16 bln bushels, nearly 1 bln bushels below last year’s level.

ProFarmer’s estimate is even lower, at 172.3 bushels per acre, with production projected at 15.34 bln bushels. If realized, this would make the 2026 U.S. corn crop the smallest in three years. Crop conditions have also deteriorated, with only 57% of corn rated good to excellent as of August 23, compared with 71% a year earlier.

Expectations of tighter supplies are already supporting futures. Since mid-August, corn futures have gained about 60 cents per bushel, while nearby contracts are trading around $5.25 per bushel, their highest level in more than three years. USDA projects U.S. corn ending stocks to decline by 292 mln bushels, while any further reduction in the crop estimate could tighten supplies even more.

Higher corn prices could also support other grain markets, particularly feed barley and oats, as well as wheat to some extent. Despite a still sizeable U.S. corn crop, strong demand and declining global stocks are expected to keep the market tight throughout the 2026/27 season.

Tags: corn, global stocks