Export demand for corn in Ukraine has fallen sharply

The strong export demand for Ukrainian corn in April and May helped Ukraine to export about 7 mln tons of corn in the last two months. As of June 19, Ukraine has already exported 28.19 mln tonnes of corn since the beginning of 2023/24 MY (compared to 28.18 mln tonnes on the same date last year), while USDA forecast was 26 mln tonnes.

the Purchase price of corn last week continued to decline due to the closure of export programs by major traders, and stopped at about 170 $/t or 7800-7900 UAH/t with delivery to the ports of the black sea, after reaching a maximum level this season of about 185-188 $/t. It is worth noting that the forward prices for corn of the new harvest also decreased from the previously offered 170-175 USD/t to 160 USD/t for delivery in October-November.

The decline in feed wheat prices and improved conditions for corn planting in Ukraine and the US will continue to put pressure on prices in the near future.

In Ukraine, in 2024, corn was planted on 3.93 mln ha, or 100.4% of the planned area, and the precipitation in June amid low temperatures continued to improve the condition of the crops.

According to the NASS, as of June 16, corn was planted on 100% of the planned areas in the United States and 93% of the planted areas were germinated (95% last year). During the week, the assessment of crops in good and excellent condition decreased by 2% to 72% against 55% last year.

During the week on the stock exchange in Chicago, the July corn futures are trading at about 177 $/t (-2.2% for the month), and December at about 184 $/t (-3.4%), receiving support from the forecast of hot weather this week, which may adversely affect the condition of crops.

According to Conab, as of June 15 in Brazil, the first crop corn was harvested on 88.1% of the area (87% last year), and the second crop corn was harvested on 13.1% of the area (5.3% last year), which will increase export supplies of corn in the coming months. It should be noted that S&P Global Commodity forecasts a sharp increase in corn use for bioethanol production in Brazil to 17 mln tonnes, compared to 13.26 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY, which will slightly reduce exports from Brazil.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export