Egypt, Turkey and Bangladesh seek alternatives to Black Sea wheat

Growing risks to Black Sea shipping are forcing major wheat importers to look for alternative suppliers. Egypt, Turkey and Bangladesh are increasingly considering other origins due to supply disruptions and the reluctance of some exporters and shipowners to operate in the region.

Logistical problems are already reshaping traditional trade flows. Some Russian exporters are redirecting cargoes to Baltic ports, increasing demand for rail transport and pushing transportation costs higher.

The situation is particularly sensitive for Egypt, one of the world’s largest wheat importers. Buyers have to balance the need to secure sufficient grain for the domestic market against higher freight costs and the risk of delays in shipments from the Black Sea region.

Amid the logistical disruptions, S&P Global Energy CERA cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 32.5 mln tons from 42.5 mln tons previously. The forecast assumes that normal Black Sea export operations could resume by January 2027.

At the same time, Black Sea wheat prices remain under pressure from weak demand for FOB cargoes. The Platts Milling Wheat Marker averaged $211.73/t in September, down from $219.30/t in August, while the benchmark fell to $204/t on October 6.

Tags: Egypt, Turkey, wheat, logistics, Bangladesh