Dry weather concerns continue to build across southeastern Australia

Dry weather concerns continue to build across southeastern Australia.

Many southern NSW farmers have stopped planting winter crops having already planted a sizeable proportion of the crop dry as they wait for more rain.

Southern wheat and barley values pressed even higher last week as the nervous wait for rain continues.

Feed barley values into Melbourne are now demanding upwards of $380 on delivered spreads which is less than $5 below ASW. Traders are reporting that barley and hay is now being trucked from northern NSW into Victoria.

At the same time, favourable weather in the north of the state and southern Queensland is pressuring northern grain markets lower. Queensland’s Darling Downs received 30-50 millimetres of rain and parts of northern NSW also received patchy rain.

Up country bids for wheat held in bulk handler storages fell $6-$7/t.

In its latest seasonal update for June to September released last week, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology offered a glimmer of hope of improved rain for southeastern Australia.

The bureau said there is a 60-80 per cent chance of above-average rainfall for inland Australia, including the major east coast cropping areas from June to August.

However, the weekly breakdown of the bureau’s precipitation maps indicated the dry weather pattern will remain until early June.

Nearby rainfall models are forecasting rain for southern NSW later this week and potentially more next week.

Coastal areas of NSW have also recorded heavy rains early this week with forecasters tipping general showers across southern NSW cropping areas later in this week.

USDA released its initial forecasts for the 2025-26 marketing season last year which predicts expanding global supplies.

The bearish wheat pushed United States wheat futures to new lows before recovering. Global wheat production is forecast to increase by 8.8 million tonnes to 808m tonnes.

Global wheat demand is projected to climb by 6pc aided by larger imports from Turkey, China and Pakistan.