Drought cuts EU rapeseed crop potential despite larger planted area

EU rapeseed production in 2026 could decline to 19.85 mln tons from 20.51 mln tons a year earlier, as the impact of severe drought has proved more significant than previously expected, according to Oil World analysts.

The main issue is lower yields. The average EU rapeseed yield is forecast at 3.12 t/ha, down from 3.35 t/ha in 2025. This is expected to offset a 0.24 mln ha increase in planted area to 6.37 mln ha.

Weaker results are being recorded in several major producing countries. Germany’s rapeseed crop could fall to 3.8 mln tons or less, compared with 3.98 mln tons last year. In the Czech Republic, where harvesting is nearing completion, yields are 16% below last year’s level, while production could decline by 19%. Sweden’s crop forecast has been reduced to 0.39 mln tons.

At the same time, the situation varies across the EU. France is expected to increase rapeseed production compared with last season, partially offsetting losses in other parts of the bloc.

The worsening outlook for the European crop is already supporting the market. Low EU rapeseed yields, uncertainty over Ukrainian exports and higher Canadian canola prices contributed to an increase in European rapeseed prices at the beginning of this week.

Tags: EU, drought, rapeseed, crop forecast