Conab Lowers Brazil’s 2021/22 Soybean and Corn Estimates

In their January Crop Report, Conab lowered the 2021/22 Brazil soybean estimate 2.3 million tons to 140.4 million and they lowered the 2021/22 Brazil corn estimate 4.2 million tons to 112.9 million.

Brazil’s 2021/22 soybean production is now estimated at 140.4 million tons, which is down 2.3 million tons from their December estimate of 142.7 million. The soybean acreage is basically unchanged from last month at 40.39 million hectares (99.76 million acres). The soybean yield is now estimated at 3,478 kg/ha (51.8 bu/ac), which is down 0.9 bu/ac from last month.

Even with this reduction, Conab is still one of the highest estimates in the market. Some private estimates have the Brazilian soybean production as low as 130.0 million tons.

Brazil’s 2021/22 total corn production is now estimated at 112.9 million tons, which is down 4.2 million tons from the December estimate of 117.1 million. The reduced production was the result of a lower estimate for the first corn crop, which is now estimated at 24.7 million tons. The estimates for the safrinha corn crop and the third corn crop were left unchanged this month.

The first corn crop has been severely impacted by prolonged hot and dry weather in southern Brazil. The acreage of the first corn crop was unchanged at 4.51 million hectares (11.13 million acres). The yield of the first corn crop was lowered to 5,495 kg/ha (87.3 bu/ac), which is down 15.2 bu/ac from their December estimate.

Brazil’s safrinha corn production is estimated at 86.2 million tons (76.3% of Brazil’s total corn production). The first corn crop production of 24.7 million tons represents 21.8% of Brazil’s total corn crop and the third corn crop production of 1.8 million tons represents 1.5% of Brazil’s corn production.

 

Soybean & Corn Advisor

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