Canada may struggle to double grain exports to non-US markets by 2035

Canada’s grain sector may find it difficult to meet the government’s goal of sharply increasing exports to non-U.S. markets by 2035. Quorum Corp believes that doubling export volumes would require major investment in rail and port infrastructure.

Quorum Corp President Mark Hemmes said doubling export flows within a decade would be extremely difficult without a substantial expansion in the capacity of the country’s two major rail operators, Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City. This would require additional locomotives, rail cars, personnel and track infrastructure.

Even if rail capacity were expanded, Canada would still face bottlenecks at ports and along the final stages of the logistics chain. Significant investment would be needed in port terminals, access infrastructure and the management of cargo flows and returning empty rail cars.

Another challenge is that a major increase in grain exports would also require substantially higher crop production. According to Hemmes, doubling production within a decade is unrealistic. Agricultural commodities would also have to compete for limited export infrastructure with minerals, metals and potash, as Canada is also planning to increase shipments of these products.

At the same time, the current season has started strongly for Canadian grain exports. In the first seven weeks of the 2026/27 MY, Canada exported about 6 mln tons of grain, compared with 4.46 mln tons during the same period last season.

Tags: Canada, wheat, USA, rail transportation, export, grain