Black Sea becomes the main risk factor for the global wheat market

Ukrainian attacks on Russian maritime logistics in the Sea of Azov have begun to directly affect global grain trade. Following a series of strikes, Russia was forced to temporarily suspend traffic through the Don-Azov Canal and the Kerch Strait, significantly limiting the use of one of its key agricultural export routes.

In response, Russia intensified attacks on Ukrainian ports in Odesa region, which handle more than 90% of Ukraine’s grain and vegetable oil exports. As a result of the strikes, several major terminals have already suspended operations, while some traders have temporarily halted purchases for delivery to deep-sea ports. Concerns over possible supply disruptions have already been reflected in wheat futures.

At the same time, Ukraine’s operation has expanded beyond the Sea of Azov. The Unmanned Systems Forces reported strikes on Russian vessels in the Black Sea, including shadow fleet tankers. As a result, risks are gradually spreading to the main Black Sea shipping routes through which Russia exports a significant share of its grain, vegetable oils, and petroleum products.

According to the FAS USDA forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year, Russia is expected to account for more than 20% of global wheat exports, while Ukraine’s share is projected at around 7%. Together, the two countries supply nearly 30% of global wheat exports, meaning that any disruption to Black Sea logistics is quickly reflected in the global grain market.

Around 90% of Russia’s seaborne grain exports are shipped through ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin. Ports on the Sea of Azov handle roughly one quarter of the country’s wheat exports, while the bulk of shipments move through the deep-sea Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk, Taman, and Tuapse. This is why the expansion of Ukrainian strikes from the Sea of Azov into the Black Sea significantly increases risks for Russia’s entire export logistics network. During the peak new-crop export season, redirecting these flows to alternative routes would be extremely difficult due to limited port and rail capacity.

The importance of the Black Sea to the global wheat market can be compared with the role of the Persian Gulf in the crude oil market. If disruptions to shipping through the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea persist, losses for Russian exporters could run into billions of dollars, while global grain prices are likely to remain under pressure from logistics risks.

The escalation in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea therefore creates risks for exports from the region’s two largest wheat suppliers. Any further spread of attacks on vessels, ports, and logistics routes could increase global price volatility and create additional risks for countries dependent on Black Sea grain imports.

Tags: export, prices, wheat, restrictions, war, Ukraine, Russia