Asia is shifting its grain purchases away from the Black Sea region towards other suppliers

Major grain importers in Asia have started shifting purchases away from the Black Sea region toward alternative suppliers as attacks on Ukrainian and russian ports and vessels intensify. Indonesia has already purchased Australian wheat for September-October delivery, while other Southeast Asian countries have booked similar cargoes. Buyers in Bangladesh are seeking offers for Romanian wheat, while some importers are also considering supplies from as far as North America.

Problems are also emerging with existing contracts for Ukrainian and russian grain. With shipowners increasingly reluctant to enter high-risk areas of the Black Sea, traders are offering Asian buyers grain from Romania and Bulgaria instead. Some contracts that do not allow a change of origin have had to be canceled under force majeure. Ukraine and russia together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, meaning prolonged disruptions could significantly reshape global trade flows.

Sea freight costs from Ukraine have risen sharply. Freight rates for August grain shipments from Ukraine to Indonesia have reached nearly $90/t, compared with around $70/t several weeks ago, yet charterers are still struggling to secure vessels. Ukrainian grain exports in August have already fallen by around 76% year-on-year amid the effective blockade of the country’s Black Sea ports.

At the same time, russian exports have been disrupted following the shutdown of major grain terminals in Novorossiysk. The disruptions are therefore affecting two of the world’s largest Black Sea wheat suppliers during a key seasonal shipping period. Alternative routes have limited capacity, while Ukraine is also facing low water levels on the Danube and attacks on port and railway infrastructure.

The shift in purchasing is already supporting global wheat prices as importers are forced to turn to more expensive grain from other origins. For Ukraine, a prolonged shutdown of seaports also creates a risk of losing part of its traditional markets to Australia, Romania, Bulgaria and other exporters. Ukraine has already cut its 2026/27 grain export forecast to 38–40 mln tons from 43 mln tons previously, while its ability to replace sea shipments with alternative routes remains limited.

Tags: Ukraine, grain, Asia