Kenya relies on imports for nearly 90% of its wheat supply

Kenya is becoming increasingly dependent on imported wheat as domestic production declines. In 2025, the country’s wheat harvest fell 18.2% to 254.9 thsd tons, while imports reached 2.24 mln tons. As a result, imported wheat accounted for 89.8% of total supply.

The main factors behind weaker production include high costs, volatile prices, drought, crop diseases, land fragmentation and farmers shifting to more profitable crops. One producer estimated wheat production costs at more than KSh50,000 per acre, while at a price of around KSh6,000 per 90 kg bag, farmers need to harvest more than eight bags just to cover costs.

Production also remains highly dependent on weather, as a significant share of wheat is grown without irrigation. Drought, excessive rainfall and changing rainfall patterns increase yield risks and make production planning more difficult.

Kenyan researchers are developing varieties with improved tolerance to drought, soil acidity, low fertility and rust diseases. The potential yield of newer varieties can reach up to 8 t/ha, compared with around 1.5 t/ha in the 1970s, although actual yields are often much lower because of weather and economic constraints.

Further declines in domestic production would increase Kenya’s exposure to the global market and make its food system more sensitive to international prices and supply disruptions. At the same time, improved varieties alone are unlikely to solve the problem without stronger farm profitability and more reliable market access.

Tags: wheat, imports, Kenya