Argentine expert forecasts global cattle prices will remain high for several more ears

The global beef market is entering a prolonged period of tight supply that is expected to keep cattle prices elevated for at least the next four to five years. This outlook was shared by Argentine livestock consultant and market analyst Victor Tonelli, who believes the current price strength reflects a broader global trend rather than a temporary market fluctuation.

According to Tonelli, steadily growing demand for beef has led many countries to draw down their cattle inventories in recent years in order to satisfy consumption needs. As a result, herd numbers have declined significantly, creating supply shortages that now require years of rebuilding.

The expert noted that the situation is evident across major markets. In the United States, cattle numbers have fallen to the point where beef imports have surged to around 3 million tonnes, more than double the previous year’s level. Meanwhile, China continues to import close to 3 million tonnes of beef annually, maintaining strong demand despite introducing certain import restrictions.

Tonelli argues that the shortage is structural in nature and linked to the biological realities of cattle production, which limit how quickly herds can be expanded. He believes the global supply deficit has been developing since the mid-2000s and will take considerable time to reverse.

In Argentina, cattle slaughter is projected to decline by around 10% in 2026, falling to 12.3–12.6 million head from 13.5–13.8 million a year earlier. Lower supply is expected to reduce domestic beef consumption, while exporters are likely to benefit from favorable international prices. According to Tonelli, a more balanced market environment may not emerge before 2028.

Tags: prices, Beef cattle, Argentina