Alternative routes cover only a quarter of Russia’s grain export potential

Alternative routes can handle only about a quarter of Russia’s seasonal grain export potential amid disruptions to shipments through the Black Sea. The combined capacity of the Baltic, Caspian and other alternative routes is estimated at 10.75–12.25 mln tons, equivalent to 23–26% of the potential 44–45 mln tons of exports per season.

The Baltic remains the main alternative route. The capacity of the port of Vysotsk is estimated at 1.1 mln tons, while St. Petersburg can handle around 0.15 mln tons. A new Tekhnotrans terminal with annual capacity of 4 mln tons is also scheduled to be commissioned in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, even with infrastructure expansion, Baltic capacity remains well below the volumes traditionally shipped through southern ports.

Rerouting grain through the Baltic is also significantly more expensive than using the traditional Black Sea route. Wheat with 12.5% protein at Vysotsk was assessed at around $250–260/t FOB, compared with about $212/t at Black Sea ports. As a result, using the Baltic route can add roughly $40–50/t to logistics costs.

Additional capacity is also being developed on the Caspian Sea, where around 1.5 mln tons of new transshipment capacity has been announced. However, the Caspian route has limited throughput and is largely focused on shipments to Iran. Further expansion of exports through this corridor would require additional port and rail capacity.

A complete blockade of the Black Sea basin could result in the loss of 30–35 mln tons of Russia’s wheat export potential, according to estimates. This volume is equivalent to around 15% of global wheat trade, meaning prolonged restrictions on Black Sea shipments could have a noticeable impact not only on Russia’s domestic market but also on the global grain balance.

With existing capacity, alternative routes cannot fully compensate for reduced exports through southern ports in 2026. If disruptions to Black Sea shipments persist, a significant part of Russia’s export potential could remain unrealized, while rerouting grain through alternative corridors would involve substantially higher logistics costs.

Tags: Russia, export, grain, wheat