Bulgaria risks losing the ability to export 5 mln tons of wheat amid worsening security conditions in the Black Sea

Bulgaria could face serious difficulties exporting around 5 mln tons of wheat due to deteriorating security conditions in the Black Sea. Some vessels are already refusing to call at Bulgarian ports, creating risks for the fulfillment of export contracts. This was stated by Ilia Prodanov, Chairman of Bulgaria’s National Grain Producers Association, in an interview with Bulgarian National Television (BNT), according to Radio Bulgaria.

According to Prodanov, rising insurance premiums have increased maritime transport costs five- to sixfold. However, the situation has recently become significantly more difficult, as the main problem is no longer just the cost of transportation but whether vessels can reach Bulgarian ports at all. He emphasized that without guarantees of safe navigation, the country risks losing the ability to utilize a significant part of its export potential.

Prodanov also highlighted the importance of the Black Sea region for global wheat trade. According to his estimates, global wheat production totals around 800 mln tons, but only approximately 200 mln tons enter international trade. Of this volume, russia accounts for about 50 mln tons of exports, Ukraine for 20 mln tons, Romania and Kazakhstan for 10 mln tons each, and Bulgaria for 5 mln tons. Therefore, disruptions to shipping in the region could affect a significant share of international grain trade.

Deteriorating maritime transport conditions are creating additional difficulties for Bulgarian grain traders and farmers. Rising insurance and freight costs are reducing the competitiveness of grain in international markets, while shipowners’ refusal to call at ports could lead to shipment delays or disruptions. This increases uncertainty for exporters that rely on maritime logistics to supply grain to international buyers.

The association’s chairman called on the Bulgarian authorities to ensure the safety of the country’s territorial waters to maintain port accessibility for commercial shipping. According to him, Bulgarian ports remained attractive to shipowners just a few days ago, but the situation is changing rapidly. The outlook for wheat exports will depend on the stabilization of security conditions and carriers’ willingness to operate in the Black Sea region.

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Tags: Bulgaria, export, Black Sea region, wheat, logistics