Africa adapts to disruptions in Ukrainian grain supplies but remains a strategic market

Despite Russia’s renewed attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure, African countries are no longer reacting as sharply as they did in 2022–2023. According to an analytical article by Africa expert Marta Oliinyk-Domochko, African grain markets have largely adapted to changes in Black Sea logistics by diversifying suppliers, expanding strategic grain reserves, and increasing purchases of Russian wheat.

At the same time, Africa remains one of the world’s largest wheat import markets. North African countries consume around 45 mln tons of wheat annually, with a significant share covered by imports. Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Morocco remain heavily dependent on foreign supplies, while wheat demand across Sub-Saharan Africa continues to grow rapidly due to urbanization and changing dietary patterns.

Africa also remains one of the key destinations for Ukrainian wheat exports. During July–March of MY 2025/26, the continent accounted for 49.4% of Ukraine’s wheat exports, or 4.89 mln tons. Egypt was the largest buyer with 2.63 mln tons, followed by Algeria with 1.8 mln tons, while Tunisia also ranked among Ukraine’s top ten export destinations.

However, Ukrainian shipments no longer determine the overall balance of the African wheat market. According to USDA forecasts, Egypt is expected to import about 12.5 mln tons of wheat in MY 2026/27, Algeria around 9.2 mln tons, and Tunisia 1.7 mln tons. Ukraine has also lost part of its market share in several countries, including Ethiopia, where Russian wheat has significantly strengthened its position.

According to the article, Russia has substantially expanded its presence across Africa in recent years. In the first half of 2026 alone, it exported 10.2 mln tons of wheat to the continent, supplying more than 40 of Africa’s 54 countries. Beyond competitive pricing, Moscow increasingly uses grain exports as a tool to expand its political and economic influence, including through free wheat shipments to selected partner countries.

The author concludes that despite growing competition, Africa will continue to require large volumes of imported wheat due to rapid population growth and insufficient domestic production. To maintain its position, Ukraine should expand cooperation with African countries beyond grain exports by offering agricultural technologies, expertise, and joint food security projects.