2023/24 Brazil Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 147.0 Million Tons

The Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 147.0 million tons as private estimates continue to decline due to problems in Rio Grande do Sul. In their May Crop Report, Conab estimated the Brazil soybean production at 147.6 million tons.

In Rio Grande do Sul, Emater estimated that the soybeans were 91% harvested as of late last week. The quality of the seed is reported to be poor with moldy seeds and some germinating in the pods. Every day the crop stays in the field, the quality deteriorates so some farmers are harvesting their soybeans at 30% moisture, which requires a lot of drying to get the moisture down to 14%. In many areas there is not enough local drying capacity, so some cooperatives are transporting the seed to other locations where dryers are available.

Emater had originally estimated the soybean yield at 3,329 kg/ha (49.6 bu/ac) but acknowledged that it would be lower once the harvest is completed and damage from the flooding is accounted for.

The consulting firm DATAGRO lowered their estimate last week of the 2023/24 Brazil soybean crop to 147.5 million tons, which is now 8.3% below the 160.8 million tons produced in 2022/23. They are estimating the soybean acreage at 45.935 million hectares (113.4 million acres), which is up 2.8% compared to last year with a statewide soybean yield of 3,213 kg/ha (47.8 bu/ac) compared to last year’s yield of 3,602 kg/ha (53.6 bu/ac).

The consulting firm Hedgepoint Global Markets is estimating the Brazil soybean estimate at 146.0 million tons, which is down 4.1 million tons from their previous estimate. They feel losses in Rio Grande do Sul are greater than what Conab is estimating.

Tags: Brazil, estimate, soybeans, crop, harvested, yield