2022/23 Brazil Soybeans 43% Harvested vs. 54% Last Year

Rainfall over the weekend favored southern and northwestern Brazil. The rainfall was relatively light with the heaviest amounts limited to Sao Paulo and Parana. The forecast for this week is calling for rain in central and northwestern Brazil. Overall, the rains in Brazil have been gradually getting lighter, which is typical for the month of March.

The soybean crop in Brazil was 43% harvested as of late last week comparted to 54.6% last year and 46.6% average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 10% for the week. Mato Grosso leads the way with 88% harvested while Parana remains slow at 17% harvested. Open weather in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais, Bahia, Tocantins and should allow for a quick harvest pace.

Mato Grosso – The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 88.1% harvested as of late last week compared to 90.4% last year and 81.5% average. This represents an advance of 11.8% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where the soybeans are 97% harvested. The slowest harvest is the northeastern region where 74% of the soybeans have been harvested.

Relatively dryer weather over the last several weeks have allowed farmers to move ahead of the average harvest pace. The graph below shows the 2022/23 soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso (red line).

Parana – The soybean harvest in the state advanced to 17% as of earlier last week with 3% of the soybeans rated poor, 12% rated average, and 85% rated good according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). Last year Parana fell to third place behind Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul among leading soybean producing states in Brazil due to very low yields. This year the state will regain its status as the second leading soybean producing state in Brazil due to lower yields in Rio Grande do Sul.

Deral is estimating the 2022/23 soybean crop in Parana at 20.9 million tons, which is up 0.2 million from their January estimate and would be a new record for the state. The average soybean price in Parana during February was R$ 158.14 per sack (approximately $13.85 per bushel), which was the lowest in 12 months and 14% below February of 2022.

Rio Grande do Sul – In the municipality of Carazinho in north-central Rio Grande do Sul farmers have not started harvesting their soybeans, but the president of the Rural Union of Carazinho/RS is expecting soybean yields in the range of 30 to 35 sacks per hectare (27 to 31 bu/ac). In a good year, yields should be 60 to 70 sacks per hectare (53.6 to 62.5 bu/ac). This is the third year in a row of dry weather has impacted the soybean crop in the municipality.

Tags: crop, forecast, harvest, Brazil, weather, rainfall, soybeans