World Bank forecasts 10% rise in food commodity prices in 2026 amid global risks

Global food commodity prices could rise by approximately 10% in 2026 and a further 7% in 2027 due to higher energy and fertilizer costs, disruptions to grain shipments and El Niño-related weather risks. According to the World Bank’s October Commodity Markets Outlook, overall commodity prices are projected to increase by 23% in 2026 before declining by 7% in 2027.

Developments in the global energy market remain one of the main drivers of rising prices. According to World Bank estimates, energy prices are expected to increase by 32% in 2026, reversing three consecutive years of declines. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $91 per barrel, compared with $69 in 2025, before easing to $79 per barrel in 2027. Meanwhile, global crude oil production could decline by 5.2% this year due to supply disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East.

Higher energy prices directly affect agricultural production costs by increasing spending on fuel, logistics and mineral fertilizers. The World Bank forecasts a 14% rise in fertilizer prices in 2026, following a sharp increase in urea prices earlier in the year. Fertilizer prices could return to their 2025 levels in 2027. Additional pressure on food markets comes from the risk of lower crop yields due to El Niño and disruptions to maritime grain shipments.

Particular concern surrounds the possibility of several adverse factors intensifying simultaneously, including an escalation of the Middle East conflict, attacks on Black Sea grain shipments and a strong El Niño event. Under an adverse scenario, Brent crude oil prices could average $105 per barrel in 2027, while global food commodity prices could exceed the baseline forecast by 12% and rise above their 2022 levels. Such developments could trigger a new food crisis and reduce food affordability, particularly in the most vulnerable countries.

Amid rising global risks, the World Bank Group has made $50–60 bln available through existing financing instruments, including $25 bln in pre-arranged financing. These funds could be used to support vulnerable populations, strengthen countries’ fiscal capacity and provide liquidity to businesses and farms. The World Bank warns that simultaneous increases in energy and food prices are intensifying inflationary pressures and threatening food security, particularly in low-income countries.

Tags: World Bank, food commodity