Wheat prices in Ukraine continue to decline, but stock market quotes have stopped the decline

The global wheat market remains under pressure from favorable weather conditions in key producing countries and the start of new harvests. Improved production forecasts continue to limit the potential for price increases, although the decline in quotations on major exchanges has now stopped.

In Ukraine, weather conditions also remain favorable for crop formation. Against this background, Argus agency increased its forecast for Ukrainian wheat production by 0.6 million tons to 24.1 million tons, which is 0.6 million tons higher than the latest USDA estimate.

Over the past week, export purchase prices for old-crop wheat in Ukraine continued to decline and gradually approach the levels of the new crop. Prices for food wheat decreased by 100–150 UAH/t to 10,850–11,000 UAH/t or 216–218 $/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. At the same time, new-crop wheat is traded at 210–215 $/t.

Feed wheat also fell by 100–150 UAH/t to 10,600–10,750 UAH/t or $210–212/t with delivery to ports. Prices for the new harvest fell to $200–202/t or $10,200–10,300 UAH/t.

Despite the decline in prices, export activity remains high. In the first 20 days of June, Ukraine exported 0.86 million tons of wheat, compared to 0.67 million tons in the same period last year. Overall, in the 2025/26 MY, exports reached 13.43 million tons, compared to 15.57 million tons a year earlier.

The situation on global stock exchanges looks more stable. Soft wheat quotes in Chicago and Paris were supported by harvest delays in the US due to excessive rainfall and heat waves in France.

At the end of the week, wheat futures changed as follows:

• soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago increased by 1.3% to $219.5/t;
• HRW durum wheat in Kansas City fell 1% to $232.8/t;
• Spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis lost 0.5% and fell to $225/t;
• September futures on Euronext in Paris rose 1.7% to €203.25/t or $243.5/t.

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of June 21, 40% of the U.S. winter wheat crop has been harvested, compared to a five-year average of 24%. The share of winter wheat in good to excellent condition fell 1 percentage point to 26% for the week, down from 49% a year earlier. Spring wheat also fell 1 percentage point to 54%, the same as last year.

At the same time, American exports are showing positive dynamics. Since the start of the new 2026/27 season, the US has already shipped 971,000 tons of wheat, which is 15.9% more than in the same period last year. This helps to contain further price declines in the American market.

In Europe, traders are focused on France, where a heat wave continues. High temperatures are raising concerns about a possible deterioration in the condition of spring crops and grain quality.

According to FranceAgriMer, as of June 15, the share of soft wheat crops in good and excellent condition in France was 76%, down 1% from the week before but significantly higher than last year’s figure of 68%. For durum wheat, the figure was estimated at 64%.

Competition is intensifying in the Black Sea region export market. Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% for delivery in July-August is offered at $231-233/t FOB, while Ukrainian and Romanian wheat is offered at $235-236/t FOB.

An additional challenge for Ukrainian exporters was the full use of the annual quota for wheat exports to the EU as of June 1. In this regard, sellers will be more actively looking for buyers in the markets of the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia.

Some market support is provided by expectations of increased demand from Middle Eastern countries following the easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf and the gradual restoration of logistics routes.

Meanwhile, India’s large stocks continue to weigh on the global market. According to Reuters, as of June 1, the country’s state wheat stocks were 53.41 million tonnes, almost double the government’s target of 27.6 million tonnes and the highest level since 2021. The large stocks could expand India’s export opportunities in the new season and increase competition in the global wheat market.