Poultry industry growth increases pressure on Indonesia’s corn market

Indonesia’s corn production is forecast to decline slightly in the 2026/27 season, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), as dry weather linked to a strong El Niño event and changes in cropping patterns weigh on output. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Jakarta estimates harvested area will fall 1.4% to about 3.4 mln hectares, while production is projected at 13 mln tons, down 0.4% from the previous season.

A wider adoption of high-yield hybrids and genetically modified corn varieties is expected to limit the production decline. According to the USDA, these varieties deliver about 30% higher yields while reducing production costs thanks to improved pest resistance.

At the same time, demand from the feed industry remains strong. The poultry sector accounts for around 90% of total compound feed consumption, and poultry feed production is forecast to reach 23.6 mln tons in the 2026/27 season as broiler and layer inventories continue to expand.

Despite rising feed demand, corn use in feed rations is expected to decline by about 1% to 9.5 mln tons due to limited domestic supplies. Feed manufacturers are increasingly substituting wheat for corn in feed formulations.

Analysts note that continued expansion of Indonesia’s poultry industry will keep feed grain demand growing, while weather risks and constrained corn production are likely to maintain tight conditions in the country’s domestic grain market.