Wheat prices in Italy rise 24% and corn 17% amid Ukrainian grain export disruptions

Disruptions to Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea are already affecting the European market. In Italy, prices for milling wheat have risen by 24%, while corn prices have increased by 17%. Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), reported the figures, citing Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.

According to Torero, the global grain market has so far weathered supply disruptions thanks to substantial stocks. However, the situation could deteriorate significantly if the disruptions persist.

Since late June, escalating attacks on Black Sea logistics have significantly complicated grain exports from Ukraine and Russia. In particular, dry-bulk shipments through the Bosphorus have fallen by 48%, while Ukraine exported 20% less grain and pulses in July–September than in the same period last year.

Some cargoes are being rerouted via the Danube, by rail and through alternative ports. However, these routes have limited capacity and involve higher transportation costs.

According to FAO, global wheat prices rose by 6.3% in September 2026, while corn prices increased by 5.6%.

At the same time, export disruptions are creating opposite conditions for grain buyers and producers. Prices are rising on international markets, while Ukrainian farmers are being forced to sell their products at lower prices because of difficulties shipping them out, Torero noted.

In particular, Ukrainian milling wheat was priced approximately 31% below Western European levels in early September. Ukraine also needs additional storage capacity for 11 mln t of grain.

“What matters is not how much wheat there is in the world overall, but how much is available on the international market. If Ukraine and Russia cannot export grain, stocks held by other exporters could fall to historically low levels,” Torero said.

Other factors are adding to the pressure, including restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which affect fertilizer supplies and energy prices, as well as El Niño, which increases the risk of crop losses.

According to the FAO economist, countries heavily dependent on imports of Black Sea wheat remain particularly vulnerable, especially in Africa.

Tags: prices, wheat, Italy, Ukraine, corn, grain