Wheat prices continue to fall in Ukraine and Russia due to reduced export demand

Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine are falling after prices for Russian wheat, the volume of offers of which increased on the eve of the introduction of export quotas from February 15 at the level of 8 million tons, although initially quotas were supposed to be 9-11 million tons.

Prices for domestic food wheat decreased in ports to 9200-9400 UAH/ton or 300-308 $/ton, depending on the delivery time, and for feed wheat – to 8600-8800 UAH/ton or 280-285 т/ton.

According to the Icarus and SovEcon agencies, export prices for Russian food wheat with 12.5% protein have been falling for three consecutive weeks, and last week they fell by 3 3-5/ton to F 329-335/ton FOB for deliveries in December – January.

In my 2021/22, as of December 16, Russia exported 20.4 million tons of wheat, which is 16% lower than last year’s pace due to reduced production and high export duties, which this week will increase to 9 94/ton.

• March Black Sea wheat futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday rose only 0 0.25/ton to 3 334.75/ton, indicating a decrease in demand.

On the US stock exchanges, wheat prices rose slightly, but they are under pressure from low export rates, which for the week of December 10-16 decreased by 27% to 211.9 thousand tons. total exports in the season reached 11.6 million tons, which is 21.5% lower than last year’s rates.

March futures on US stock exchanges rose:

• by 1 1 / ton to Чикаго 285.8/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 1 1.19/ton to.298.8 / ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City.

At the same time, hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis fell by 1 1/ton to 3 374.7/ton.

Prices for European wheat started the week with a drop, but at the end of trading they rose slightly.

• March futures for European wheat on Paris Euronext rose by €1.25/ton to €279.75/ton or € 315.5/ton.

The European Commission raised its forecast for soft wheat production in the EU from 130.4 to 130.6 million tons. wheat exports from the EU in my 2021/2 as of December 12 amounted to 13.1 million tons, which is 8.7% higher than last year’s pace. And the export of soft wheat from France in November 2021 was the lowest for this period, since my 2018/19, and amounted to 802.7 thousand tons, of which 256.7 thousand tons were sent to Algeria, and 237.7 thousand tons – to China.