Soybean prices in Ukraine came under pressure from falling domestic demand and declining world prices

Chicago soybean quotes fell during the month in anticipation of an improved US soybean harvest forecast, and in the November report, the USDA did raise its US production forecast by 0.33 million tons to 124.48 (116) million tons, increasing the yield estimate by 0.2 bushels/acre to 53.3 bushels/acre, although analysts had expected an increase to 53.5 bushels/acre. Despite this, January Chicago soybean futures rose by 2.5% to $448.3/ton (although still -6.6% below last month’s level) due to strong export demand for soybeans.

Soybean exports from the US from October 29 to November 5 decreased by 24.5% compared to the previous week to 1.896 million tons, which is 68.6% higher than the same period last year, and in total since September 1 they reached 14.14 million tons, which is 58.3% higher than last year’s pace.

According to USDA NASS, as of November 8, soybeans in the US have been harvested on 92% of the area (91% on average over 5 years).

On Monday, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its annual baseline forecasts, according to which soybean acreage could increase to 87.5 million acres in the MY 2027/28 (compared to 86.9 million acres this year).

In Ukraine, attacks by Russian aggressors on oil extraction plants have intensified in recent days (about 8 plants were attacked), which led to the shutdown of some enterprises. Against this background, the largest Ukrainian processor Kernel has stopped the work of all eight of its plants, which will significantly reduce the demand for soybeans and other oilseeds from processors and lead to a sharp decrease in purchase prices.

Exporters’ demand prices for GMO soybeans also remain under pressure from increased transportation costs and lower world prices, but are still at the level of 19,000 UAH/t or 400-420 $/t with delivery to Danube ports or 420 $/t with delivery by rail to the western border. At the same time, demand has emerged for deliveries of non-GMO soybeans to Odessa at a price of 18,000 UAH/t or 400 $/t.

As of November 10, 3.297 million tons of soybeans have been threshed in Ukraine from 94.4% of the area or 1.515 million hectares with an average yield of 2.18 tons/hectare, but heavy rainfall does not allow the harvest to be completed.

The pace of soybean imports into the EU continues to decline, but Brazil is increasing supplies, displacing the USA and Ukraine from the European market. According to the European Commission, in the period from July 1 to November 8, EU countries reduced soybean imports compared to the corresponding period last year by 5% from 4.49 to 4.27 million tons, which is 14.21% lower than the indicator of the 2024/25 MY season (4.97 million tons). At the same time, Brazil’s share in the European soybean market during this period increased from 44.05% to 73.07%, while the US share decreased by 60.20% to 17.16%, and the share of Ukraine – from 9.1% to 4.66%, as supplies from Ukraine decreased by 51.44% to 198.61 thousand tons.

The decline in the euro against the dollar also lowers dollar prices for exporters, which will continue to put pressure on world prices. In addition, China reduced soybean imports in October compared to September from 11.88 to just 7.35 million tons.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean