Further declines in wheat prices will depend on the resumption of Black Sea exports

The further direction of global wheat prices will largely depend on prospects for the resumption of exports through the Black Sea. A restart of shipments along this route could increase pressure on prices by adding to global supply, while continued restrictions are bringing the market closer to a price floor, according to Rod Baker, an analyst at Bendigo Bank.

“If wheat starts flowing through the Black Sea, there’s likely more downside for prices. If it doesn’t, we’re getting close to a price floor now,” the analyst said. Meanwhile, Andrey Sizov, head of consultancy SovEcon, said the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine talks towards a ceasefire in the Black Sea and limited shipments through the waterway should support wheat prices.

An additional factor weighing on the market is growing supply from the Southern Hemisphere. On November 12, Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange raised its 2026/27 wheat production forecast by 500,000 tonnes to 24.3 mln tonnes due to better-than-expected weather conditions. Competitively priced new-crop Argentine wheat could limit further gains in prices.

On November 13, wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose 1.9% to $5.95¼ per bushel, recovering after falling to $5.82 per bushel, their lowest level since June 30. Analysts attributed the rebound to technical buying following the sharp sell-off a day earlier, which some traders considered excessive. Corn futures gained 1.1% to $4.47¼ per bushel, while soybeans rose 1.4% to $12.36 per bushel.

Further movements in grain prices will also depend on crop conditions in South America and Chinese demand for US agricultural products. Generally favourable growing conditions in the region are weighing on corn and soybean prices, while the market is watching for possible additional Chinese purchases of US crops under the trade truce with Washington. The strengthening US dollar, which reached a 19-month high this week, is adding further pressure on US grains.

Tags: prices, Black Sea region, wheat