Wheat falls to five-month low as Egypt’s demand weakens

Wheat prices fell to a five-month low as weak demand from major importers, including Egypt and Turkey, coincided with growing supplies from the new Black Sea harvest. Egypt concluded the 2025/26 marketing year with record wheat purchases of more than 14 mln tons, but demand has since slowed due to large stocks held in bonded warehouses, estimated at around 1.4 mln tons. Some importers have paused new purchases, while others are covering only their July and August requirements.

Egypt’s wheat import structure is also changing, with private companies taking a larger share of imports while government tenders play a smaller role. In the MY 2025/26, private importers accounted for 62.7% of total wheat imports, compared with 37.3% for government purchases. This marks a significant shift from the traditional balance between public and private buyers.

At the same time, the government has increased domestic wheat procurement to 4.7 mln tons and aims to reach 5 mln tons before the procurement season ends in mid-August. Supported by stronger local production, traders expect Egypt’s wheat imports to decline to 12–13 mln tons in the 2026/27 marketing year.

The government is also considering reforms to its subsidized bread program, including a possible transition to direct cash payments. Market participants believe the changes are intended to improve the efficiency of state support while reducing budget costs.

The combination of weaker import demand, higher domestic procurement, a growing role for private importers, and potential subsidy reforms is reshaping Egypt’s wheat market at a time when global prices are already under pressure from abundant new-crop Black Sea supplies.

Tags: Egypt, prices, wheat