Wheat exports expected to face the biggest impact from Black Sea port shutdown — opinian

The suspension of operations at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports is expected to have the greatest impact on wheat exports among the country’s major crops, according to Taras Kovatsenko, Commercial Director of Viliia.

He noted that more than 85% of Ukraine’s grain exports traditionally move by sea. As a result of ongoing Russian attacks, the market is once again facing conditions similar to those in 2022, when the key challenge was no longer global grain prices but the ability to export the harvest at all. Danube ports and overland routes remain available alternatives, but together they accounted for only 9% of Ukraine’s grain exports in 2025, making them far from sufficient to replace the lost Black Sea corridor.

Kovatsenko believes wheat will be the most vulnerable crop under these conditions. Domestic consumption in Ukraine is limited, while Europe is not a traditional destination for Ukrainian wheat. The EU reinstated import quotas last year, Ukraine’s quota has already been exhausted, and additional exports are no longer economically viable.

“In this situation, wheat can only be exported in transit through longer logistics chains, for example via ports in Poland or Romania. However, the capacity of these routes is only a fraction of what is required. We therefore expect a significant decline in market liquidity and the sharpest price drop among the major crops,” he said.

For farms with sufficient storage capacity, Kovatsenko believes the most reasonable strategy is to hold wheat stocks and delay sales until market conditions improve.

The outlook for other crops is more mixed. Rapeseed and soybeans continue to enjoy stable demand in the European market, although domestic rapeseed prices in hryvnia have already fallen by 15-20% over the past two weeks, with some contracts postponed until 2027. Sunflower, which depends on domestic crushing and exports through Black Sea ports, risks facing an oversupply of raw material, as forward prices at crushing plants have already dropped by $150-200/t. Corn, Ukraine’s largest crop by volume, is also expected to suffer heavily from logistics constraints, increasing carryover stocks and putting additional pressure on domestic prices.

Despite these challenges, Kovatsenko expressed hope that favorable factors will ultimately outweigh the negative ones. He said Viliia will continue expanding available logistics options to maximize marketing opportunities for agricultural producers and help move as much of the region’s harvest as possible.

Tags: corn, export, soybean, wheat, rapeseed