Weather factor: alarm raised over wheat, canola crop quality

The flooding in Germany and Belgium this week will undoubtedly alter expectations for EU-27 crop production numbers and has the potential to create regional tightness within that market, says CRM Agri.

“Germany is one of the top four producers in the EU for cereals,” ​said the UK based analysts.

The torrential rain caused deadly floods in Germany and Belgium and in other regions and has generated anxiety over potential late yield loss and quality downgrades for ripening wheat crops.

Combined with concerns for northern US states and Canada, alongside the concerns for quality in Germany, wheat has continued to receive support, reported the CRM Agri​​ team.

In the US and Canada, weather forecasts are causing concern again for northern US states and Canada as rainfall is lacking from the seven-day outlook. “Drought conditions and heatwaves in Canada have also been causing real concerns for the canola crop, with the potential for very poor yields if these conditions continue.”​

The production outlook across the northern hemisphere for both grains and oilseeds is still far from certain then.  “Without the large buffer of stocks, the 2021/22 season cannot afford poor yields and small grain crops, markets will react quickly to shortfalls in production,” ​said the analysts.

Though the Russian wheat harvest continues at a good pace, they said, with the Russian Ministry of Agriculture announcing yesterday [July 15] that 3.7MHa of wheat had been harvested with an improving average yield of 3.44t/Ha, up noticeably from the disappointing 3.28t/Ha average at the start of the week.

Reduction in US corn and soy exports ​

Yesterday also saw disappointing US weekly export data, reported those analysts.

Weekly US net corn sales of just 138.8Kt for 2020/2021 were down 20% from the previous week, but up 31% from the prior four-week average; for 2021/2022, the data showed disappointing net sales of just 133.2Mt, they said.

Exports of 1.062Mt were down 18% from the previous week and 26% from the prior four-week average, bringing total season exports to 59.75Mt, out of the USDA’s expected 72.34Mt season exports, with just under two months of the US corn season remaining.

Weekly US soybean net sales of 21.7Kt for 2020/2021 were down 66% from the previous week and 76% from the prior four-week average. For 2021/2022, net sales of just 290.8Kt were made.

While corn and soybean US weekly net sales disappointed, 424.7Kt of US wheat net sales were made for 2021/2022, up 46% from the previous week and 44% from the prior four-week average, noted the UK specialists.

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Tags: canola, weather, Canada, wheat, flooding, heatwave, crop quality