Weak demand for US wheat increases price pressure on Ukrainian and EU markets

Global wheat prices continue to decline amid weak export demand, which has failed to strengthen even as seaborne shipments from the Black Sea region face restrictions. Over the past month, US wheat futures have lost 10–13%, almost completely reversing their previous gains. According to USDA, US wheat export shipments fell by 21.8% week-on-week to 240.3 thsd tons during October 8–15, down 51.3% from a year earlier. Total US wheat exports since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year reached 7.22 mln tons, 64.4% below the previous year’s pace.

Amid sluggish demand, December soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures in Chicago declined by 2.5% over the week to $240.8/t, hard red winter (HRW) wheat in Kansas City fell by 2.3% to $257/t, while hard red spring (HRS) wheat in Minneapolis dropped by 3.9% to $246.2/t. Meanwhile, the European market has shown relative resilience, with December wheat futures on Euronext in Paris trading near €243.5/t, up 0.8% from a month earlier. Lower EU corn production forecasts and high corn prices are supporting European wheat quotations. As of October 11, EU countries had exported 8 mln tons of wheat, matching last year’s pace, with Romania remaining the largest exporter at 3 mln tons.

Ukrainian wheat exports are also significantly behind the previous season’s levels. During the first 16 days of October, Ukraine shipped 558 thsd tons of wheat, compared with 877 thsd tons a year earlier, while total exports since the beginning of the 2026/27 marketing year reached 3.34 mln tons against 5.61 mln tons last year. Egypt was the largest buyer of Ukrainian wheat in the first half of October, importing 136.9 thsd tons, or 24.6% of total shipments. Algeria purchased 110.7 thsd tons, Turkey 53.8 thsd tons, Spain 52.4 thsd tons and Italy 48.4 thsd tons. Despite restrictions affecting Black Sea logistics, shipments continue through Danube ports and in transit via Romania and Poland.

However, alternative export routes remain expensive and constrained by limited capacity. Due to delays at railway border crossings and transshipment difficulties, some grain cargoes may remain in wagons for 20–40 days, increasing transportation costs and reducing the competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat. A sharp rise in marine insurance costs due to war risks is adding further pressure. According to the cited market estimates, insurance for a single voyage to Black Sea ports in Ukraine or Russia could reach $2.5 mln in October, representing a 10–16-fold increase compared with previous base rates. For grain cargoes, this could translate into additional war-risk insurance costs of approximately $35.7/t within ocean freight rates.

In Ukraine’s domestic market, traders are offering 5,000–5,500 UAH/t for feed wheat and 5,500–6,500 UAH/t for milling wheat on an EXW elevator basis. Processors are maintaining purchase prices for milling wheat at 6,500–7,000 UAH/t delivered to mills. At Danube ports, export bids stand at $170–177/t for milling wheat and $150–155/t for feed wheat, while buyers in Constanta are offering $250–260/t for milling wheat. Despite low prices, Ukrainian farmers remain reluctant to sell wheat, focusing mainly on marketing oilseeds. Further declines in US wheat prices could intensify competition in export markets and put additional pressure on Ukrainian purchase prices, particularly if logistics costs remain elevated.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, wheat, USA