USDA improves global oilseed balances

In its June report, FAS USDA analysts made only minor changes to the global oilseed balance for the MY 2026/27, but raised the soybean crop estimate for the current season, adding pressure to global price benchmarks.

The forecast for global oilseed production in MY 2025/26 was raised by 2.15 mln tons to 700.65 mln tons. The main driver was an increase in Argentina’s soybean crop estimate by 2 mln tons to 50 mln tons. Meanwhile, the Rosario exchange has already raised its own forecast to 51.5 mln tons, which could indicate further growth in carryover stocks at the start of the new season.

The global oilseed production outlook for MY2026/27 was also revised upward by 0.1 mln tons to a record 718.2 mln tons. For comparison, production is estimated at 700.65 mln tons in MY 2025/26, 686.65 mln tons in MY 2024/25, and 657.5 mln tons in MY 2023/24.

Growth was driven mainly by an upward revision in sunflower production by 0.3 mln tons to 62.06 mln tons, while the soybean crop estimate was reduced by 0.2 mln tons to 441.34 mln tons.

Global oilseed crush in MY 2026/27 was raised by 0.1 mln tons to 606.74 mln tons, compared with 587.5 mln tons in MY 2025/26, 568.9 mln tons in MY 2024/25, and 543.74 mln tons in MY 2023/24.

Global ending stocks of oilseeds in MY 2026/27 were increased by 0.26 mln tons to 146.99 mln tons. For comparison, stocks are estimated at 146.57 mln tons in MY 2025/26, 144.4 mln tons in MY 2024/25, and 136.1 mln tons in MY 2023/24.

After the report was released, July soybean futures in Chicago fell by 0.7% to 409.7 $/t, about 10% lower than the level following the May report. Meanwhile, November contracts are trading $7/t above July futures.

Global sunflower production for MY 2026/27 was raised by 0.3 mln tons to 62.06 mln tons, compared with 55.25 mln tons in MY 2025/26 and 53 mln tons in MY 2024/25.

In particular, production in russia was increased by 0.3 mln tons to 19.5 mln tons, compared with 17.5 mln tons and 16.9 mln tons in the previous two seasons. Ukraine’s forecast remained unchanged at 13.5 mln tons, compared with 11 mln tons and 13 mln tons in previous years.

In the Ukrainian market, sunflower seed prices stabilized at 32,500–33,000 UAH/t delivered to plant at 50% oil content, up 500–1,000 UAH/t from a month earlier. The main driver of growth was currency depreciation, while export prices for sunflower oil remained stable at 1,320–1,330 $/t delivered to port.

The global rapeseed production outlook for MY 2026/27 was left unchanged at 96.9 mln tons, compared with 95.57 mln tons in MY 2025/26 and 86.25 mln tons in MY 2024/25.

For Ukraine, USDA lowered rapeseed export forecast for MY 2025/26 by 0.2 mln tons to 2.1 mln tons due to rising domestic processing.

On exchanges, August rapeseed futures in Paris rose by 1.2% over the month to 528.5 €/t or 616.5 $/t, while July canola futures in Winnipeg increased by 1.5% to 765 CAD/t or 547 $/t.

At the same time, a sharp 17.5% monthly decline in Brent crude oil prices to 88.5 $/barrel continues to pressure oilseed markets. If oil prices remain below the psychological level of 90 $/barrel, this could trigger a market reversal and limit further price growth in oilseeds.